Wednesday, 20 January 2021

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IPCC predicts dramatic effects of continued global warming

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 A major international assessment of climate change adopted here by 110 governments provides conclusive new scientific evidence that human activities are causing unprecedented changes in the Earth's climate. Produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the report confirms that it is extremely likely (95-100% probability) that most of the warming since 1950 has been due to human influence. This is a change since the IPCC´s last assessment in 2007, when the evidence was described as "unequivocal," with at least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct. The new report further states that greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would induce changes to the climate; some of them would very likely be unprecedented over decades to thousands of years. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement that he is "deeply concerned by its conclusions."

"The Secretary-General urges all countries to make every effort needed to reach a global legal climate agreement by 2015, and to take action swiftly in order to limit the effects of climate change."

Some of the report's key findings include:

  • Global average temperatures will likely rise by another 0.3°C to 0.7°C in the period 2016-2035. Averaged over the period 2081-2100, the global surface temperature is likely to exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C or even (depending on future greenhouse gas emissions) 2°C.
  • Each of the last three decades has been warmer than all preceding decades since 1850.
  • In the Northern Hemisphere, the first decade of the 21st century has been the warmest of all.
  • In large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia, it is likely that the frequency of heat waves has increased.
  • The global mean sea level rose by around 19 cm from 1901 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and melting glaciers and ice sheets. The rate of rise accelerated between 1993 and 2010, and it is very likely to increase further during the 21st century and beyond.
  • It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink.Some scenarios foresee a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in September before mid-century.
  • By 2100, glacial volume could, under one scenario, decline further by as much as 35-85%.

Three years in the making, the "Physical Science Basis" volume of the Fifth Assessment Report was produced by over 250 scientists. The IPCC was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988.

Additional link : 

IPCC´s Press Release




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